Treasuries sold off over the past year with a bear-flattening bias on rising inflation concerns, driven by an oil shock.

Oil's jump from $59 to $102 a barrel pushed headline CPI from 3.0% to 3.7% just as an AI investment boom kept the economy running hot, leaving no room to ease: the Fed reversed course with a 25bp hike in September, and the front end, which trades the Fed, repriced most. The 2-year rose 133bp to 4.74% and the 10-year rose 110bp to 5.09%, its highest since July 2007; nearly all of it came through real yields, so this is a repricing of the Fed's path rather than a loss of faith in long-run inflation control. Futures now price about 3.0 hikes by September 2027; the next tests are the FOMC on October 28.

2Y 4.74% (+133bp, 1Y) · 10Y 5.09% (+110bp, 1Y) · 30Y 5.43% (+85bp, 1Y)

Yield curve

Change by maturity, in basis points (1bp = 0.01 percentage point). Red: yield rose. Blue: yield fell.

Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates. Changes computed by the dashboard.

The path in between

Sources: U.S. Treasury yields, fed funds, long-run anchor (r* + expected inflation, 20-year windows), NBER recessions, MP regimes classified by the dashboard.

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Curve slope, past year

Long minus short yield, in bp. Below zero = inverted curve.

Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates. Spreads computed by the dashboard.

US Treasuries Dashboard